15-11-2024
If today’s leaders were to propose changes to the way our climate and debt policies operate in order to better represent and safeguard the interests of future generations, how would current generations react?
This is the key question behind the study “Governing for Future Generations: How Political Trust Shapes Attitudes Towards Climate and Debt Policies” conducted by Gustaf Arrhenius, Director, Malcolm Fairbrother, sociologist, Krister Bykvist, Practical Philosophy, Tim Campbell, researcher at the Institute for Futures Studies and Department of Sociology, Uppsala University. This study looks at the mistrust of some citizens towards long-term policies, particularly those concerning future generations.
Research process in a nutshell
The study was conducted in 2019 in Sweden, Spain, South Korea and China. The authors carefully selected these four countries on the basis of previous surveys, which revealed varying levels of political confidence (high in Sweden and China, and low in Spain and South Korea) and optimism about the future (higher in Asian countries than in European countries).
Respondents were asked about their concern for future generations, their willingness to sacrifice for the good of future generations, their optimism about the future, their confidence in political and social institutions, and their support for policies to reduce global warming or national debt that would impose a cost in the present but benefit people in the future. To answer the questions, interviewees had to give a score, generally from 0 to 10, 0 indicating the lowest level and 10 the highest.
What conclusions can be drawn from the study?
Firstly, based on the answers to the questions about how often they think about future generations and how important they consider them to be, most of the people questioned are at least somewhat concerned about future generations.
We should also keep in mind that the two key variables in this study are people’s concern for future generations and their levels of political confidence. With regard to concern for future generations, the majority of respondents in the four countries gave a score of 5 or more, 54% in South Korea, 74% in Sweden, 83% in Spain and 95% in China. On the other hand, the level of political trust varies considerably between countries, with 28% of respondents in South Korea giving a score of 5 or more, 55% in Spain, 56% in Sweden and 93% in China.
1. Support for Future-Oriented Policies
According to the results, it seems that some demographic groups show more support for future-oriented policies: younger respondents, with a post-secondary education, higher income, and with one or more children living at home. However, it is worth noting that this result is not consistent across countries. The results also demonstrated that the support for future-oriented policies is more related to political trust than it is to concern about future generations and is, in that case, consistent across the four countries. Overall, the policies aimed at reducing global warming rather than reducing debt received more support.
2. Confidence and Willingness to Sacrifice
Then, the authors have chosen to use confidence in the effectiveness of policies and the willingness of individuals to sacrifice for others to determine support for policies. The results confirm that political trust, confidence and support for policies are all linked and suggest that political trust influences perceptions of policy effectiveness.
The percentage of respondents who described their willingness to sacrifice as equal to or greater than 5 ranged from 52% in South Korea to 83% in China. In addition, women, older respondents and respondents with children living at home appear to be more willing to sacrifice for future generations.
These results show that confidence and willingness to sacrifice are higher among respondents who have both greater political confidence and greater concern for future generations.
3. Optimism About Future Generations’ Standards of Living
The answers to the question on trends in living standards vary considerably from one country to another. In Europe, only 23% of respondents in Spain and 29% in Sweden were optimistic about rising living standards, compared to 52% in South Korea and 83% in China. In addition, optimism about future living standards was higher among women, older respondents, respondents with children at home and respondents with greater political confidence.
Moreover, respondents who expect their standard of living to rise were more concerned about future generations, more willing to make sacrifices and more in favour of future-oriented policies.
While only taking into account a partially representative sample of respondents, the study shows that people are moderately concerned about future generations. In general, many of those questioned are concerned about the well-being of future generations, would prefer to avoid causing them harm, and are willing to sacrifice their own standard of living so that future generations can have a better life. However, the results also showed that political distrust increases scepticism about the policies to be adopted to prevent the harmful effects of climate change and public debt. It therefore suggests that attitudes towards future-oriented policies are more influenced by people’s political confidence than their concerns about future generations.
What are our recommendations for the EU?
This study is important evidence of the growing support for future generations’ rights around the world. So far, very little has been done at EU level to address the needs of future generations to be represented. Indeed, while our Future Generations initiative welcomes the appointment of the Commissioner-designate responsible for intergenerational fairness, which was part of our reform proposals, there remains a need to bring a longer-term perspective to EU policy-making.
The other two asks of our manifesto are:
- Develop an interinstitutional declaration on the rights of Future Generations providing a robust framework that guarantees the protection and advancement of the rights of Future Generations, while also including commitments of the three EU institutions to incorporate protections for Future Generations into legal frameworks and policies.
- Set up a Future Generations’ Impact Assessment within the Better Regulation Guidelines that will include intergenerational justice as a key principle for any law-making.
For a better understanding of the various aspects involved in this study, we invite you to consult it in full here.